Scientists at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) have warned that a near-Earth asteroid named 2024 YR4 now has a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in 7 years and 10 months.

How Likely is 2024 YR4 to Hit Earth?

While the chances are low, they are still significant enough to warrant attention. The chances are roughly 1 in 33, or 3.1%. The estimated impact probability has increased over time, from 1% to 2%, and now to 3.1%.

What if it Strikes? What is This Asteroid? Should We Worry?

2024 YR4 striking Earth would not end the world or cause devestation like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs did. It has been nicknamed a 'city killer' because its impact could devastate an area the size of a city. It hitting Earth would not make humanity go extinct. The asteroid is roughly the size of a football stadium.

However, that is still dangerous. Anyone near the impact area would be killed or severely injured. But, fortunately for us, 88% of the Earth is either ocean or uninhabited land. This means that even if 2024 YR4 strikes, it could strike an area where there would be no human casualties, or close to zero.

What Scientists Are Doing

Scientists worldwide will continue to monitor 2024 YR4. There is a significant possibility that the impact risk could decrease over time, possibly even dropping to zero. However, the possibility of it increasing cannot be ruled out. As the asteroid gets closer to Earth, we should get more accurate estimates to get a better idea.

Even if it becomes inevitable that the asteroid strikes our planet, it is still possible that, in advance, the predicted impact area could be evacuated so that it is empty before it strikes.

In conclusion, while 2024 YR4 poses a small risk, it remains unlikely to impact Earth. Even if it were to strike, the chances of it hitting a populated area are low.